Thomas Cooley, writing in Forbes, gives his answer to the question of whether or not we are headed for ‘Another Great Depression?‘ First, Cooley offers some perspective. For instance:

The losses to date represent less than .5% of the work force. In the relatively mild recession of 2001 to 2002, job losses equaled about 1% of the work force. In the much more severe recession of 1981 to 1982, job losses totaled nearly 3% of the labor force–six times today’s figure. And in the (truly) Great Depression–invoked, now, with an alarmist frequency–job losses between 1929 and the trough in 1933 were 21% of the labor force; and by 1939, total employment remained 13% below 1929 levels.

As I am one of those who recently lost employment, I consider this very good news. Truth is, most of my friends and colleagues are still employed. Those that aren’t are having great success in the job market. There are plenty of jobs out there for those industrious enough to go find them and diligent enough to follow up. I am finding that firms are investing in enabling technologies. Not only will we find jobs, but I remain confident that we will secure positions in which we will be better off than we were. But I digress.

Cooley goes on to cite scholarship on economic downturns including a comprehensive study of depressions in 14 countries during the 20th century. While each depression is different, a common theme runs through them all:

It is that unwise policy choices made in the throes of a crisis exacerbate and prolong the real downturn associated with the crisis. In particular, government policies that affect productivity and hours of work are most often responsible for throttling economic growth.

And notes in particular:

Policies matter. Roosevelt was viewed as a great activist leader during the Depression. In fact, he was a great experimenter, willing to try one thing, then another, to turn the country around. The result was an economic downturn that lasted for many years longer than it might have.

Exactly! It has taken a long time to rid ourselves of the notion that Roosevelt actually helped things. I equate Roosevelt with Bush 43 — both were great on foreign policy but horrible domestically. (OK, so Roosevelt was probably better at foreign policy but at least Bush isn’t a socialist at heart!)

The challenge now is keeping our elected servants from going down the same path. I think that will be easier with McCain rather than B. Hussein Obama in charge.

But I won’t swear to it.