Democrat Sen. Bob Graham decided not to run for his Senate seat after his short-lived campaign for president, leaving it for grabs. It was a crowded field during the primaries, but in the end former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez took the Republican spot while Betty Castor, president of the University of South Florida, is stepping up for the Democrats.

Hispanics in Florida favor Bush by a 2 to 1 margin and Mason-Dixon puts Cuban-born Martinez ahead, even in traditionally Democrat strongholds like southeast Florida and the I-4 corridor. One reason for this is that security is the top priority for Hispanic voters and Martinez is hitting Castor hard over the Al-Arian incident in which Castor, as president of the University of South Florida, allowed the professor to return to a teaching position while under investigation for fundraising for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Another aspect of the Hispanic backing for Bush means that while Martinez is able to ride Bush’s coattails, Castor attempts to distance herself from Kerry. She is running around the country trying to raise money while Martinez is doing both at the same time. Their style could not be more different:

She spends far more time fundraising than appearing in public and rarely talks to reporters. Her Republican opponent, Mel Martinez, has events almost daily, sometimes several a day, and has directed aides not to rush him so he can spend more time at events or with reporters.

Most polls put Martinez ahead, even among independents, and I expect his lead to widen even further. The Bush-Martinez synergy will triumph on election day, leading to wins for both of them. I firmly put this one as a loss of a Democrat Senate seat as the Republicans pick up one.