Incumbent Lisa Murkowski was appointed by Gov. Murkowski, her father. The stigma of nepotism has more than erased the the advantage that being an incumbent usually brings and Lisa is facing a tough race from Democrat Tony Knowles. The contest is a dead heat with Rasmussen giving a statistically insignificant lead to Knowles.

Knowles, a former governor of the state, has name recognition. In addition, Democrat heavy Max Cleland is campaining for him and his war chest is increasing nicely. Also helping is the $1.7 million that the DSCC gave to the state party for get-out-the-vote operations.

On the other hand, Murkowski is campaigning hard, likely to get the influential Right to Life endorsement, and voters going to the polls will be overwhelmingly voting for Bush (Alaska hasn’t voted for a Democrat President for 40 years).

Knowles and Murkowski have the same position on ANWR drilling and pipelines, and Knowles says that Murkowski hasn’t been able to deliver on these important issues in a state in which unemployment is over 7%. Yet there is legislation on the president’s desk that will give major tax incentives and loan guarantees for a natural gas pipeline from the North Slope to the Lower 48 so Murkowski can claim a very timely victory. In addition, it is well known that Democrats are responsible for obstructing ANWR development.

This race is about as close a toss-up as there can be, resting on a number of factors. But in the end I think that the Bush electorate, the pipeline win, the desire to have a Senator that is a member of the majority party, and the fact that Alaska hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in two decades will overcome the nepotism stigma. I hesitatingly put this race in the “Republican retain” column.