In their book Generations: The History of America’s Future, 1584 to 2069, William Strauss and Neil Howe identified four generational archetypes that appear again and again, one after another in an unbroken cycle. Lately:

• The "GI" generation (born 1901-1924) which fought and won WWII fit the Hero/Civic archetype, whose principal endowment activities are in the domain of community, affluence, and technology. Members of Hero generations are conventional, powerful, and institutionally driven, with a profound trust in authority.

  Heroes threw off the yoke of English rule, ended slavery in the civil war and saved the world from the Third Reich. Hero leaders include Gurdon Saltonstall and “King” Carter; Thomas Jefferson and James Madison; John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan.

• The Silent generation (born 1925-1942) belong to the Artist/Adaptive archetype, whose principal endowment activities are in the domain of pluralism, expertise, and due process. Members of this generational type are subtle, indecisive, emotional and compromising, and often have to deal with feelings of repression and inner conflict.

  Artists settled America and lived in suburbia in the 60s. Their best-known leaders include: William Shirley and Cadwallader Colden; John Quincy Adams and Andrew Jackson; Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson; Walter Mondale, and Colin Powell.

• Baby Boomers (born 1943-1960) belong to the Prophet/Idealist archetype, whose principal endowments are in the domain of vision, values, and religion. Members of Prophet generations are values-driven, moralistic, focused on self, and willing to fight to the death for what they believe in.

  Prophets bring social change and wage righteous wars. Their best-known leaders include: John Winthrop and William Berkeley; Samuel Adams and Benjamin Franklin; James Polk and Abraham Lincoln; and Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt.

• Generation X (born 1961-1980) belong to the Nomad/Reactive archetype, whose principal endowments are in the domain of liberty, survival, and honor. Members of this archetype are ratty, tough, unwanted, diverse, adventurous, and cynical about institutions.

  Nomads raise hell when young and exhibit get-it-done leadership as adults. Leaders belonging to this group include Nathaniel Bacon and William Stoughton; George Washington and John Adams; Ulysses Grant and Grover Cleveland; Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower.

Whether you agree with Strauss and Howe’s work or not, their groundbreaking theories revolutionized generational thinking and has given historians a new way to look at modern history.

Blogging on Harvard Business, Tammy Erickson wonders Which Generation Will Give the U.S. Its Next President?

She notes that Strauss and Howe showed that Hero/Civic and Prophet/Idealist generations have historically produced the most U.S. presidents. The GI or Greatest Generation gave us Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, and the first Bush. The Silent generation has produced to vice presidents but no presidents. If elected, John McCain will be the first and probably last president from that period.

She then continues that Bill Clinton and George W. Bush are both Boomers from the Prophet/Idealist generation, and argues that Barack Obama is a Boomer as she uses the dates 1946 – 1964. Even using the traditional dates (1961 is the beginning of Generation X), one could argue that Obama (born 1961) is a cusper and identifies more closely with Boomers than Xers.

From this, Erickson makes some interesting observations:

Are there insights from this for today’s candidates? I’m struck that the Boomer candidates who seem to resonate the most strongly today seem to be those who can strike a strong idealistic chord. Obama and Huckabee’s strength certainly seems to stem from their articulation of strong values. Clinton’s victory speech in New Hampshire signaled a shift in this direction, as she described how she has now “found her voice.” This is perhaps not a time for emphasizing civic themes — building new programs and institutions — but touching idealistic hearts.

Will there be a future president from the next Strauss and Howe cycle, the “reactives” — in this case, Generation X? Possibly. Both Truman and Eisenhower came from the previous cycle’s generation of reactives. However, Strauss and Howe, in 1991, predicted that this generation’s term of presidency, if it occurs, won’t begin until 2020 — reflecting the likelihood of a continuing string of Boomers at the helm for the next decade.

After that, very likely, the next long stretch of presidencies will come from the next round of “civics” — today’s Generation Y.

Delving into prophecy using generational theory is a fascinating endeavor, and one can certainly argue that Strauss and Howe got it right when, in 1991, they accurately predicted trends in the behavior of the Millennial generation.

In The Fourth Turning (1997), Strauss and Howe predict a time of great crises from which the next Hero generation will have to face, the Millennials. While many see the darkening of our future as something to fear, I find that viewing it as just another cycle of history makes the future less uncertain, in spite of not knowing exactly what the crises will be.

And I take great comfort in the thought that a generation of Heroes will be ready to overcome adversity. May they be as great as the last generation of Heroes.