The remaining races and 2 NY as yet unassigned account for 676 delegates. By taking a look at the number of delegates each has already won, I have calculated the percentage needed to reach the “magic number” of 1,237 at the convention.
Looking at these numbers, one would think that Trump has a Sisyphean task ahead to get to the magic number. Yet it would also seem to indicate that, as Trump said in his NY victory speech, Cruz is just about mathematically eliminated from any chances of victory. In other words, these numbers indicate that a contested convention is almost inevitable. And so the media would lead you to believe.
But the “just about” caveat of Trump’s declaration is clear when you consider the 244 delegates from previous primaries that are not dedicated to any current candidates:
|Bush||4||<– He spent how much?!!|
Cruz will easily pick up a lot, if not most, of these delegates.
But I’m going to go out on a very short limb here and say Trump will almost certainly get a quarter of these, which would be 61 delegates. If so, he will need 49% of the delegates from the remaining primaries. 49% will be tough to pull in.
If he picks up 100 (or a mere 41% of the spares), he will need 43% of the yet-to-vote. A much more likely scenario.
If he picks up 150 (61% of the free delegates), he will need only 36% of the coming delegates. Not outside the realm of possibility.
And then there’s this:
Internal documents show Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump‘s campaign advisers are projecting that the billionaire businessman will secure more than 1,400 delegates at the Republican National Convention in July, The Washington Post reported Wednesday.
That total greatly exceeds the 1,237 delegates necessary to secure the nomination on the first ballot.
I don’t know about 1,400 but, given the outstanding delegates and the math above, I believe he will almost certainly hit the “magic number” required by the time he rolls into Cleveland in mid-July. Especially if California tilts to him as New York did.
Meanwhile, after eight years of America destroying, race baiting, terrorist hugging, apology ridden, despot bowing Obama, we are allowing him to go happily into retirement. Trump isn’t even the presumptive nominee and the “conservative” politicians are wargaming how best to get rid of him.
That’s right: the GOP elite are already starting to socialize the scenarios under which Trump can be impeached.
And they wonder at the average Joe’s anger.
The Weekly Standard shouts You Won’t Believe What Donald Trump Thinks The Federal Government’s Top 3 Roles Are.
Indeed, in one breath, Trump says education is one of the top 3 functions of the federal government, in the next he agrees that yes, he wants to push education down to the states. It’s as if he doesn’t see the conflict.
- This is one of the many things he is lying about to get elected and momentarily lost where he is in the campaign. Perhaps he wasn’t planning on backtracking on this issue until the nomination was in the bag at which time he will be pursuing Dem voters.
- He believes in pushing the responsibility down to the states but keeping oversight at the federal level (which will be the same as it is now, just different verbiage shrouding the truth).
- He a pathological liar and the only reason to vote for him is to destroy the GOP that has betrayed us.
Well, not money actually belonging to children but money allocated to educate our youth so it’s the same thing, right?
First, the back story.
Democrats in Connecticut have created a massive debt problem with decades of poor fiscal decisions and now in desperate straits. According to Truth in Accounting, Connecticut is one of 39 “sinkhole states” that do not have enough assets to cover its debt. In fact, it ranks at the bottom of the list barely beating out New Jersey as the state in the worst fiscal condition. TIA calculates that Connecticut has only $10.1 billion of assets available to pay bills totaling $72.2 billion.
Fast forward to present day. What can a poor progressive do?
The obvious solution is to look for previously protected mountains of money and institute a tax for the common good.
American Interest documents just such a solution:
The state of Connecticut wants its richest university to share more of its wealth.
Facing budget shortfalls and a deep pension hole, Connecticut lawmakers this week proposed taxing the investment profits of Yale University’s $25.6 billion endowment, the nation’s second-largest after Harvard University’s. Yale is located in New Haven, Conn.
… Connecticut is home to more than 40 colleges. But the potential tax singles out Yale because it would affect only endowments with $10 billion or more in assets.
$10 billion is certainly a good starting point. How many universities could that possibly affect?
You will find more statistics at Statista
Once one state finds a new, hopefully legal source of income, how long before other desperate states follow suit? Every one of the universities listed in the graphic above are in a sinkhole state (although Indiana barely qualifies with only a debt of $700 per taxpayer).
And once the taxation of sitting money becomes legal, how long until it is applied to other private sources? Churches will probably be safe (hopefully), but your 401K? Don’t bet on it. After all, it is for the common good.
Out of curiosity, I placed the top 4 remaining presidential candidates in Google Trends to see how interest has grown or shrunk over time.
Searches for The Donald dwarfs the others. Does it mean anything? Certainly not a predictor, right?
But just for fun:
The NRO is back at it again, labeling Trump a con artist:
The chorus of politicians and critics calling Donald Trump a con artist grows louder every day. During my seven years as an enforcement attorney at the Securities and Exchange Commission, I got a close-up view of many con artists and their scams. Watching Mr. Trump gives me an acute feeling of déjà vu.
What about decades of sending “conservative” politicians to Washington only to be disappointed time and again as they cowardly failed to stand up to Democrats or, worse yet, joined hands across the aisle and ruled like Republicrats … laughing all the way to the bank? Elected time and again by a voter base shackled to them by a two-party system that protects incumbents, making empty promises with fiery rhetoric that is the very definition of sound and fury that signifies absolutely nothing.
So I ask, where does the real con artist sit? In the seat of power.
Remember Obama’s promise to be “the most transparent administration in history”?
The Obama Administration has set a new record for rejecting Freedom of Information Act requests, censoring materials or rejecting requests for access in a stunning 596,095 cases, or 77 percent of the time.
Seventy-seven percent. No habla Englis almost 4 out of 5 times.
Who is surprised?
Pat Buchanan asks if this is the death of the GOP, or a rebirth:
Lately, 116 architects and subcontractors of the Bush I and II foreign policy took their own version of the Oxford Oath. They will not vote for, nor serve in a Trump administration.
Talking heads are bobbing up on cable TV to declare that if Trump is nominee, they will not vote for him and may vote for Clinton.
This is not unwelcome news. Let them go.
Amen. Trump will build his own team and it won’t be based on the failed policies of the past.
Read it all but I can’t resist repeating Pat’s money quote:
Quote of the Day comes from RCP in an excellent article: What the Media Miss About Trump’s Appeal:
The public’s sense that, whatever Trump’s failings, he is actually competent. That’s a compelling proposition to many Americans, who don’t think Washington bureaucrats or bloviating senators could organize a two-car funeral.
Exactly. Which is why he is pulling Reagan Democrats and will be an even more powerful force against Hillary once Bernie is out of the picture.