Rocked by a scandal, the Liberal Party is losing its grip on the reins of government. Prime Minister Paul Martin’s administration was formed only 10 months ago, yet it may be about to dissolve.

Last week the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois teamed up to pass a motion recommending that the prime minister should resign. The Liberals ignored the voting, saying the vote was out of order. So the Conservatives and Quebecois teamed up again, this time voting to shut down the government for three days, effectively demonstrating that the Liberal Party could not keep the wheels of government turning.

In response, Martin has scheduled a vote on his budget proposal for Thursday, vowing to call a new election if he loses.

How did we get here? The first piece of the puzzle is the scandal. Late last year advertising executive Jean Brault has said that he was required to pay C$1.2 million in kickbacks to members of the Liberal Party in order to win government contracts for a marketing program in Quebec with the goal of curbing separatist support. But it is support for the Liberal Party that has been eroding since the news broke.

The second piece of the puzzle is the fact that the Liberals are the ruling party, but they are a minority in Parliament and only rule by the grace of a coalition. In the 308-seat Commons, Liberals have 132 seats. A tight coalition with the left-leaning New Democrats (19 seats) brings them to 151— just short of where they need to be.

On the other side are the Conservatives with 99 seats. In the “strange bedfellows” category, the separatist Bloc Quebecois have pledged their 54 votes to the Conservatives for a total of 153. (That’s what the Liberals get for using government funds to stamp out separatism.)

In addition, the Liberals have agreed to keep one of their members from voting to make up for a Conservative who cannot vote due to absence (he is suffering from cancer)., bringing the totals to 150 to 152. There is one vacancy and three independents. Which means that the Liberals have to get all three independents. And it is close.

Independent Carolyn Parrish was drummed out of the Liberal Party last year when she crushed a doll-sized effigy of George W. Bush on television. Yet she has pledge to support the Liberals.

Although he initially expressed support for the administration, Independent David Kilgour has seemingly reversed himself, telling reporters that almost no one in his constituency wanted him to back Martin.

It may very well come down to one man, Independent Chuck Cadman, a blues guitarist that once belonged to a right-wing party that was the predecessor of the current Conservative Party. Says Cadman:

“I take this responsibility very seriously,” says Cadman, who once belonged to a right-wing party before becoming an independent. “I probably won’t know what I’m going to do until the very last moment. Not until I walk into the House to vote.”

But even if there is another vote, polls show that Conservatives aren’t gaining the votes that the Liberals are losing, so the future is uncertain. Of course, “it’s the economy stupid” would say otherwise — uncertainty has driven the Canadian dollar to a seven-month low. Yet Martin has announced an additional C$9.1 billion in new programs such as day-care, low-income housing and the environment, no doubt designed to boost his chances at the polls should a vote become necessary.

That will play well with his accusations of Conservative’s “right-wing agenda” seeing as Conservatives are talking about closer ties to the U.S. and a more active role in the War on Terror.

In the end, the country could go to the polls and end up right back where it is now. There’s a mandate for you.

Sources:

• Captain’s Quarters: One Roll Of The Dice
• Being American in T.O.: “for Canada is in meltdown”
• Christian Science Monitor: With Liberals losing control, will Canada shift to right?
• Reuters: Canada Conservatives confident government to fall
• Bloomberg: Fate of Canada’s Martin Now With Guitarist, Activist
• Bloomberg: Canadian Dollar Drops to 7-Month Low; Martin Vote Set This Week
• Wink News: Canada’s Martin: Confidence Vote Set
• Wink News: Canada Confidence Vote Coming Next Week
• Bloomberg: Canada’s Martin Spends C$9.1 Bln More as Vote Nears
• Reuters: Canada Conservatives want better U.S. ties
• Globe and Mail: Tories waiting for Thursday