Handicapping the 2008 Race
The day at the 2007 Conservative Leadership Conference ended with a panel discussion titled Handicapping the 2008 Race for the White House, moderated by Jason Wright of PoliticalDerby.com. Panelists included Ed Morrissey of Captain’s Quarters, Steve Greenhut of the Orange County Register, radio talkshow host and author Brian Wilson, and John Scott, a Republican that had the courage to run for congress against Patrick Kennedy in Rhode Island (and is rumored to soon be running for Senate against Jack Reed).
I tried to capture the gist of the responses to the questions. Best quote came from Brian Wilson:
Ron Paul has "an organization that’s dumber than a box of hair."
Now that’s funny, I don’t care who y’are. Here are the questions posed by Jason Wright, and the responses from the panel:
Will Jeb Bush ever run for president and, if so, will he win?
JS: Yes he’ll run, probably in 8 years depending on who wins this election. But the country has reached a saturation point with the Clintons and the Bushs running the country, so he won’t win.
EM: This is the American version of the War of the Roses. Yes, he’ll try (it’s in his DNA) but no, he won’t win.
BW: It’s a rhetorical question. If Hillary wins, there won’t be a republic left.
Political Derby will announce the latest rankings later today: Rudy 1st, Thompson 2nd and Romney 3rd. Do you agree?
JS: Romney is over-rated.
EM: Romney in 3rd is a stretch. No one has pulled out in the lead. Unlike the Democrats, a 2nd tier candidate can still take this one.
What 2nd Tier candidate could take the lead?
SG: Thompson is fading. Ron Paul could come up, but he can’t win the election.
No one else on the panel agreed that Ron Paul could emerge as the front runner.
JS: Ron Paul will stay in the race until the caucus and affect the dialogue. Huckabee could improve because of his machine.
Newt Gingrich’s famous "if you raise $30 million in three weeks, then I’ll run" stunt generated a lot of press. Why didn’t Newt jump in?
EM: He never intended to run. The $30 million was an excuse not to run. He doesn’t have a national constituency, but he is using the American Solutions group to build a constituency. He is planning on running in 2012 against Hillary after her first term.
Why didn’t the electoral college initiative in California get more backing?
BW: It’s not over. There are things going on and machinations taking place that will heat this up when the time is right.
Among the Republican candidates, who has the best online presence?
EM: If you are judging on enthusiasm, then Ron Paul. Romney has good online fundraising. Giuliani has a good public relations organization, but the online aspect of this is being neglected. Have to give it to Romney because of the fundraising.
Assuming Hillary is the front-runner, who can knock her off?
BW: Monica Lewinsky’s brother.
JS: Gore. Obama’s base is the youth movement, which doesn’t translate into votes at the polls.
SG: She’s got it.
EM: Nobody can beat the Clinton political machine. It’s stronger than when Bill first ran for president.
Who is Hillary’s running mate?
BW: Obama
SG: Bill Richardson.
JS: Satan would be her first choice. It’ll be Richardson. Jack Reed will be Hillary’s Secretary of Defense.
EM: Richardson, or perhaps Mark Warner of Virginia.
Who is a 3rd party possibility to shake up the race?
BW: There’s no one really grabbing the dialogue or affecting the debate. Ron Paul has "an organization that’s dumber than a box of hair." The people who have the message don’t have the money or organization to run. No one will emerge.
On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is it that Bloomberg will run?
EM: 6. But remember that he doesn’t have to jump in until next summer, after all the debates.
SG: 50/50
BW: 3
JS: 10. Other possibilities include Coburn of Oklahoma. There’s an 8 that Gore gets in.
Will Gore get in?
BW: Yes.
EM: 6. He’s enjoying life.
JS: Remember his hatred of the Clintons.
Do you see Mitt Romney as VP?
SG: No. The fact that he is a Mormon is an issue. Why would anyone want to take that on?
EM: No. If it’s Rudy, then he will need someone from the south.






