Delegate Math

Posted April 20th, 2016 by Darrell and filed in Uncategorized
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I took the GOP delegate counts from RCP and Politico and threw them into a spreadsheet.

The remaining races and 2 NY as yet unassigned account for 676 delegates. By taking a look at the number of delegates each has already won, I have calculated the percentage needed to reach the “magic number” of 1,237 at the convention.

Trump    58%
Cruz    101%
Kasich 162%

Looking at these numbers, one would think that Trump has a Sisyphean task ahead to get to the magic number. Yet it would also seem to indicate that, as Trump said in his NY victory speech, Cruz is just about mathematically eliminated from any chances of victory. In other words, these numbers indicate that a contested convention is almost inevitable. And so the media would lead you to believe.

But the “just about” caveat of Trump’s declaration is clear when you consider the 244 delegates from previous primaries that are not dedicated to any current candidates:

  Rubio 171  
  Uncommitted   57  
  Carson  9  
  Bush 4   <– He spent how much?!! 
  Fiornia 1  
  Huckabee 1  
  R. Paul 1  

Cruz will easily pick up a lot, if not most, of these delegates.

But I’m going to go out on a very short limb here and say Trump will almost certainly get a quarter of these, which would be 61 delegates. If so, he will need 49% of the delegates from the remaining primaries. 49% will be tough to pull in.

If he picks up 100 (or a mere 41% of the spares), he will need 43% of the yet-to-vote. A much more likely scenario.

If he picks up 150 (61% of the free delegates), he will need only 36% of the coming delegates. Not outside the realm of possibility.

And then there’s this:

Internal documents show Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump‘s campaign advisers are projecting that the billionaire businessman will secure more than 1,400 delegates at the Republican National Convention in July, The Washington Post reported Wednesday.

That total greatly exceeds the 1,237 delegates necessary to secure the nomination on the first ballot.

I don’t know about 1,400 but, given the outstanding delegates and the math above, I believe he will almost certainly hit the “magic number” required by the time he rolls into Cleveland in mid-July. Especially if California tilts to him as New York did.

Meanwhile, after eight years of America destroying, race baiting, terrorist hugging, apology ridden, despot bowing Obama, we are allowing him to go happily into retirement. Trump isn’t even the presumptive nominee and the “conservative” politicians are wargaming how best to get rid of him.

That’s right: the GOP elite are already starting to socialize the scenarios under which Trump can be impeached.

And they wonder at the average Joe’s anger.

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