Study Predicts Solar Activity with Chilling 97% Accuracy

A new study explains the well-known 11-year solar cycle by examining the interaction of cycles between 2 layers of the sun: one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone.

The modeling technique is called “principal component analysis” and the researchers claim that it yields a 97% accuracy rate in solar predictions. If true, the prediction is far more frightening than the pseudoscience predictions of the Global Warming alarmists:

During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.

“In 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’,” said Zharkova. “Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago.”

Source: http://phys.org/news/2015-07-irregular-heartbeat-sun-driven-dynamo.html#jCp

According to EnvironmentalHistory.org, a little 1 degree difference caused some pretty significant changes:

During the height of the Little Ice Age , it was in general about one degree Celsius colder than at present. The Baltic Sea froze over, as did most of the rivers in Europe. Winters were bitterly cold and prolonged, reducing the growing season by several weeks. These conditions led to widespread crop failure, famine, and in some regions population decline.

The prices of grain increased and wine became difficult to produce in many areas and commercial vineyards vanished in England. Fishing in northern Europe was also badly affected as cod migrated south to find warmer water. Storminess and flooding increased and in mountainous regions the treeline and snowline dropped. In addition glaciers advanced in the Alps and Northern Europe, overrunning towns and farms in the process.

Iceland was one of the hardest hit areas. Sea ice, which today is far to the north, came down around Iceland. In some years, it was difficult to bring a ship ashore anywhere along the coast. Grain became impossible to grow and even hay crops failed. Volcanic eruptions made life even harder. Iceland lost half of its population during the Little Ice Age.

Tax records in Scandinavia show many farms were destroyed by advancing ice of glaciers and by melt water streams. Travellers in Scotland reported permanent snow cover over the Cairngorm Mountains in Scotland at an altitude of about 1200 metres. In the Alps, the glaciers advanced and bulldozed over towns. Ice-dammed lakes burst periodically, destroying hundreds of buildings and killing many people. As late as 1930 the French Government commissioned a report to investigate the threat of the glaciers. They could not have foreseen that human induced global warming was to deal more effective with this problem than any committee ever could.

Of course, most of humanity made it through just fine. In fact, quite a lot of innovations were made and empires expanded.

Still, it may be best to look for real estate with an eye toward future value. For instance, I doubt that anyone wants to live in Canada during an ice age, “little” of not:

Temperature_Pattern_LIA

Global Temperature Pattern during Little Ice Age

http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/Temperature_Pattern_LIA.gif

And on a totally unrelated note, the world’s youngest glacier is in the lower 48, forming in the shadow created by the crater of Mount St. Helens.

Posted July 12th, 2015 Filed in Global Warming

The Shrinking Great Red Spot of Jupiter

Jupiter’s famed Great Red Spot has long been a defining feature for the gas giant, attracting many an astronomer’s eye and more than a few NASA flybys. But recently, the spot has been shrinking. What was once a huge area almost 25 thousand miles across has shrunk to a bare 10K across.

Obama is making the preservation of the Great Red Spot a pivotal centerpiece in his Climate Change strategy:

What we see happening on Jupiter is nothing short of a cataclysmic change that is just as serious as the retreat of the glaciers and rising of the oceans here on Earth. The Great Red Spot on Jupiter is smaller than at any point in history and the rate of shrinkage is accelerating; it may disappear altogether in as little as 17 years.

Just 400 years ago the Great Red Spot was 40 thousand miles across. Today, it is barely wider than the Earth. We cannot ignore the fact that the spot started shrinking as the industrial revolution began, and that the more carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that Man produces the faster the Red Spot shrinks.

The fringes of the scientific community have proposed that solar flares are responsible for the heating of the Earth. But it is now apparent that Mankind’s activities are having a devastating effect that extends outside of our own atmosphere. It may very well be that the larger our carbon footprint, the more unstable the sun’s activities, leading to more solar flares and shrinkage of Jupiter’s Great Red Spot.

No longer is Mankind’s disregard for the environment limited to the Earth. We must end our quest for resource consumption, pursuit of technology and creation of a viable economy in order to save the entire solar system.

Indeed, another case of correlation equating to causation.

Posted May 17th, 2014 Filed in Global Warming, Science & Technology

Where’s the Global Warming?

Investors.com notes that Europe is gripped in a winter blast that has closed airports and trapped travelers. According to the last decade of “inevitable” global warming, this should be impossible:

Since at least 1998, however, no significant warming trend has been noticeable. Unfortunately, none of the 24 models used by the IPCC views that as possible. They are at odds with reality.

Here in the States a winter storm has grounded flights across the north east and ground travel is so bad in Philadelphia that the NFL postponed a nationally-televised game until Tuesday night, after the storm passes and the roads are again safe.

Doesn’t feel like global warming to me. Sounds like the return of an ice age.

Posted December 26th, 2010 Filed in Global Warming

UnGreen: Ethanol Increases Greenhouse Gases

The Union of Concerned Scientists says that the EPA is misrepresenting facts when it comes to the case for labeling corn-based ethanol as a “renewable resource”:

According to Jeremy Martin, a senior analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Clean Vehicles Program, EPA’s decision to focus on anticipated biofuel emissions as of 2022 “distorts the picture of today’s biofuels.”  By 2022, the theory goes, corn crop yields will have increased and biorefining technology will be more efficient and green than it is today.  But for now, according to Joe Fargione, a scientist with the Nature Conservancy, “in the near term, natural-gas-powered, dry-milled corn ethanol production results in an increase of greenhouse gas emissions of 12 to 33 percent compared to gasoline.”  Worse yet, EPA’s analysis recognizes this.  However, ethanol has been redesignated, despite such indicators that it does not meet the renewable fuels criteria.

Critics point out that support for ethanol is more politically motivated than arising out of any concern for the environment:

EPA, meanwhile, has been under sustained pressure from pro-ethanol groups such as Growth Energy to approve an increase in the fuel blend ceiling from 10 percent ethanol to 15 percent ethanol—a move that observers say would constitute a massive giveaway to the ethanol industry that could prove helpful in shoring up support for the President and endangered Democrats in ethanol-producing “swing” areas, such as some Midwestern districts and states.

Focusing on turning corn into fuel has driven up the price of everything from milk to tequila. Yet once again, politicians use junk science to protect their jobs.

And Congress wonders why people don’t trust them.

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Posted April 23rd, 2010 Filed in Energy, Global Warming, Scandals

Barcelona: Heaviest Snow in 25 Years

Schools closed, roads shut down, stalled trains evacuated, power outages, flights canceled, border crossings closed. All as a result of the heaviest snowfall in Barcelona in a quarter century, with as much as 20 inches forecast for parts of Catalonia. As many as 10,000 clients were left without power.

Given the highly extraordinary situation, the Barcelona government activated its municipal emergency plan. Authorities also shut down the AP-7 highway and the national N-II. The border with France was also completely shut down leaving 4,000 trucks and around 1,000 vehicles stuck at the frontier.

The intense snowfall also meant that 142,000 children couldn’t get to school. A collapse of various high-voltage cables also meant that around 200,000 Fecsa-Endesa clients were left without electricity.

Southern France was struck with exceptionally heavy snow, with up to 16 inches falling overnight in Languedoc-Roussillon, Provence, the Rhône valley and Mid-Pyrénées.

Meanwhile, the Boston Globe points out that Gore still hot on his doomsday rhetoric:

To climate alarmists like Gore, everything proves their point. For years they argued that global warming would mean a decline in snow cover and shorter ski seasons. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,’’ one climate scientist lamented to reporters in 2000. The IPCC itself was clear that climate change was resulting in more rain and less snow.

Undaunted, Gore now claims that the blizzards that have walloped the Northeast in recent weeks are also proof of global warming. “Climate change causes more frequent and severe snowstorms,’’ he posted on his blog last month. . . .

But while Gore prays for redemption, the pews in the Church of Climate Catastrophe are gradually emptying. The public’s skeptical common sense, it turns out, is pretty robust. Just like those Himalayan glaciers.

HT to the Drudge Report.

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Posted March 8th, 2010 Filed in Global Warming

Antartica Sea Ice Increasing

MasterResource posts an incredibly detailed analysis that disproves yet another IPCC claim, that the increase in sea ice around Antarctica from 1979 through 2005 has been slight and not statistically significant. MasterResource not only disproves this claim, but shows the statistical tricks that the IPCC employed to get away with such a claim.

HT to Climate Change Fraud, who notes:

The computer models on which so much of the concern regarding global warming is based have always predicted that ice would melt quickly in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. Indeed, ice did melt quickly in the Arctic, reaching a low in 2007. The ice there has recovered dramatically, however, and it looks like we’re going to have to stay tuned for further developments regarding it.

But ice in the Antarctic has been increasing, not decreasing. A lot of different ways of looking at this have come to the same conclusion. The ice is increasing. . . .

The only real question is, as we dispose of these manufactured worries one by one, what new ones will they come up with to continue trying to scare us?

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Posted March 8th, 2010 Filed in Global Warming

Meltdown of the Climate Campaign

Steven Hayward reviews the current state of the global warming theory, from Climategate to the actual facts that contradict they alarmists. It is a good read, but I couldn’t resist pointing out this passage:

The rout has opened up serious divisions within the formerly closed ranks of the climate campaign. Before Climategate, expressing skepticism about catastrophic global warming typically got the hefty IPCC report thrown in your face along with the mantra that “2,500 of the world’s top scientists all agree” about climate change. Now the IPCC is being disavowed like a Mission Impossible team with its cover blown.

Hayward also covers some of the alternative theories for melting glaciers and receding ice caps, albeit only briefly:

The IPCC downplays theories of variations in solar activity, such as sunspot activity and gamma ray bursts, and although there is robust scientific literature on the issue, even the skeptic community is divided about whether solar activity is a primary cause of recent climate variation. Several studies of Arctic warming conclude that changes in ocean currents, cloud formation, and wind patterns in the upper atmosphere may explain the retreat of glaciers and sea ice better than greenhouse gases. Another factor in the Arctic is “black carbon”—essentially fine soot particles from coal-fired power plants and forest fires, imperceptible to the naked eye but reducing the albedo (solar reflectivity) of Arctic ice masses enough to cause increased summertime ice melt. Above all, if the medieval warm period was indeed as warm or warmer than today, we cannot rule out the possibility that the changes of recent decades are part of a natural rebound from the “Little Ice Age” that followed the medieval warm period and ended in the 19th century.

The last is my favorite theory, although I, unlike the man-made global warming alarmists, am open to consider others.

HT to newly-discovered Climate Realists.

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Posted March 7th, 2010 Filed in Global Warming

Himalayan Geology Scientists Reject Global Warming

According to Dr. Dubey, Director of the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (WITG), there are no signs that global warming is having any effect on the Himalayan glaciers. In fact, data gathered from a British weather observatory in Mukteshwar over the past 140 years shows that the temperature has actually declined .4 degrees.

Dr. Dubey says that the conditions of the Himalayas are tied to winter snowfall. Furthermore, predictions made about glaciers in the Alps or Alaska, some of which are at sea level, cannot be applied to Himalayan glaciers which are above 4 kilometers in altitude and which have a permanent temperature below 20 degrees Celsius.

HT to Climate Realists

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Posted March 7th, 2010 Filed in Global Warming

Glacier Melt Overestimated

The mass loss of Alaskan glaciers have been significantly overestimated in previous studies, says a team of international scientists.

The research team, led by Étienne Berthier of the Laboratory for Space Studies in Geophysics and Oceanography at the Université de Toulouse in France, says that glacier melt in Alaska between 1962 and 2006 contributed about one-third less to sea-level rise than previously estimated.

30 percent. Yeah, I’d call that statistically significant.

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Posted March 6th, 2010 Filed in Global Warming

Baltic Sea Feeze

Dozens of ships, including the ship pictured which has almost 1,000 people on board, are trapped in ice in the Baltic Sea. Ice breakers are attempting to free the ships in spite of gale-force winds, but according to a sea rescue spokesman, “As soon as they break the ice, it freezes over again.”

This is taking place off the coast of Sweden, where one would think they would be used to the cold. Which they are, just not this cold:

A total of about 50 ships were stuck in ice along Sweden’s eastern seaboard, said Johny Lindvall, who manages the maritime administration’s ice breaker service. Heavy ice cover is not uncommon further north, but the ice rarely gets thick enough in the Stockholm archipelago to trap powerful passenger ferries like the Amorella.

This winter has seen the earliest snowfall in Houston on record, snow in Miami, record snowfalls in Dallas, Baltimore, Philidelphia and Washington, and Snowpocolypse covering the eastern seaboard not once, but twice. The New York Times tells us that this is the warmest winter on record. Let’s see if the Swedes believe that. I’m sure that after Copenhagen more than a few Danes are questioning it.

Somebody find Al Gore and slap him with a frozen cod.

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Posted March 4th, 2010 Filed in Global Warming